An Objective Case for Optimism
For over a decade, I, along with Intertech leadership, get our economic guidance from Brian Beaulieu of ITR Economics. He recently published Economic Recovery and Profits: Know This Trend to Make More Money. In my experience, Mr. Beaulieu has provided reliable insights and a leading indicator with a high correlation to what eventually happens in the economy with enough lead time to take action before a downturn or uptick.
Despite how the current world feels, he believes the economy will grow, and it’s time to act. US Industrial Production in July had a massive surge from June. Based on their guidance, the worst for the economy is behind us. The reasons for optimism are with the lockdown and semi-sequester (e.g., less spent on restaurants, travel, personal services, etc.), we have money to spend, and employment is picking up.
They have some insights on what to do for your business:
- Have a plan of how to maximize opportunity and minimize risk
- Know where you are in the business cycle
- Make sure you have the right team. An excellent team beats an awesome plan, eight days a week
All the above said, a big part of the optimism is an expectation of a vaccine, and governors can safely keep most of their economies open. As leaders, our response needs to match the exponential, not linear, nature of COVID.